Zimbabwe’s proposed gold mining policy could undermine future exploration, reduce foreign investment and threaten long-term production growth unless key provisions are revised, according to a new policy paper by equities and research firm Fincent Advisory.
The report argues that while the policy’s objectives of increasing local participation and formalising small-scale mining are sound, some of its measures could discourage the capital needed to develop the country’s next generation of gold mines.
Zimbabwe produced a record 46.7 tonnes of gold in 2025, a 28 percent increase from the previous year, with approximately 75 percent of output coming from artisanal and small-scale miners.
However, large-scale production, where most foreign investment and exploration activity occurs, has remained broadly flat at around 12 tonnes.
“The reform’s intent is sound; its calibration is not,” Fincent said.
At the centre of the firm’s concerns is the proposed US$15 million investment threshold for foreign participation in the gold sector. Fincent argues that the threshold is significantly higher than typical exploration budgets and risks shutting out the junior mining companies that often make new discoveries.
“The US$15 million threshold sits three to fifteen times above typical exploration budgets,” the firm said.
“Treating exploration like development is the policy’s central calibration error.”
According to Fincent, only 43 companies worldwide operated exploration budgets of US$10 million or more in 2024, highlighting the scarcity of risk capital available for mining exploration.
The firm warned that increased policy uncertainty could make Zimbabwe less attractive to investors.
“Layering title, discretion and repatriation risk onto the cost of equity lifts the effective hurdle rate by an estimated four to five percentage points,” Fincent said.
“That compresses project net present value by roughly 25 to 40 percent and lengthens time-to-finance.”
The report estimates that a strict implementation of the policy could result in a 30 to 50 percent decline in exploration spending, potentially costing Zimbabwe four to six tonnes of annual large-scale gold production by the early 2030s. That could translate into between US$400 million and US$600 million in lost export earnings each year.
Fincent recommended replacing the flat US$15 million threshold with stage-based investment commitments, protecting existing investor rights and creating a transparent exemption mechanism through the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency.
“Zimbabwe can capture more national value from gold,” the firm said.
“But only if the policy is calibrated to protect the capital formation, exploration investment and investor confidence on which production growth and fiscal revenue depend.”