The current geopolitical turmoil has put global supply of oil and gas under pressure, but it has also created an opportunity for Africa to develop its vast resources, establish itself as an alternative supplier, and become a net exporter.
This is the opinion of several experts, who are urging the South African government to ease conditions that are restricting investment and have left the country “15 years behind” the likes of Namibia.
Prashaen Reddy, partner and energy expert at consultancy Kearney Africa, says in 2025 fossil fuels still accounted for about 86% of total energy supply consumed worldwide and have yet to be replaced by renewable energy at scale.
The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, compiled by Kearney and others, shows that total energy supply increased worldwide in 2025. This includes oil and gas.
“That means we are going to have to deal with these global supply chains, because where oil and gas occurs, for example traditionally in the Middle East, the US and parts of Asia where we have large reserves of oil and gas, and where they are needed, where the demand is, is in different geographic locations,” he says.
As a result, the product will continue to be transported over long distances across the world, which makes the supply chain vulnerable to shocks and energy security a priority for governments.
According to the review, many major economies remain very reliant on imported energy. “India imports around 86 percent of its oil demand, while China and Europe remain heavily reliant on imported crude.”
It notes that “India and Europe were also reliant on imported gas to meet half their supply needs, and China for over a third”.
“Elsewhere, the US continued to increase its role as a net energy exporter in 2025, led by exports of LNG which grew by 27%.”
Volatility in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with sanctions against Russia have impacted global supply of oil and gas and countries may be reluctant to become overly dependent on the US, keeping geopolitical considerations in mind.
This points to increased competition for access to oil and gas, as well as a desire by countries to diversify sources of supply.
Africa’s moment
Energy demand in Africa grew by 3.5% in 2025 across a population of nearly 1.5 billion, with competition for supply continuing to intensify, according to Kearney Africa.
Oil production on the continent however rose 4.2%, driven by Nigeria, Algeria and Libya.
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Meanwhile, West African refined product exports hare up 75% since 2023, anchored by Nigeria’s Dangote refinery with a capacity of 650 000 barrels per day. The company is also considering another big refinery in Kenya.
Reddy says Africa has huge oil and gas resources but lacks enough refining capacity.
“There is a big gap, but also a huge opportunity for Africa to take our fate into our own hands. Dangote has shown that it can be done.”
South Africa imports most of the oil and gas it consumes, and its refining capacity has been reduced to 300 000 barrels per day, according to Reddy. The country used to supply neighbouring countries with refined products, but that capacity is now limited.
He however suggests that the country should, apart from government’s move to increase strategic fuel reserves to ensure energy security in the short term, also consider partnering with neighbours like Mozambique and Namibia, which have ample resources.
This can be done through agreements like the existing Republic of Mozambique Pipeline Investments Company (Rompco), which brings gas from Mozambique to Sasol in South Africa.
Reddy also believes the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a strong platform for expanding intra-African trade in oil and gas.
Independent economist Elize Kruger agrees that current geopolitical conditions are favourable for Africa to develop its own oil and gas resources.
Doing so would also help mitigate against price volatility and exchange rate risks associated with imports.
She says Namibia and Botswana have great potential as gas suppliers and Mozambique’s LNG supply is going to be big.
“But our government must be proactive and partner with neighbouring countries. Mozambique has already entered into an agreement with the East.
“South Africa cannot assume that it will be the preferred partner.”
She adds that South Africa also has good resources on the West Coast Orange Basin – where Namibia is developing oil and gas reserves – but lags because its environment is not conducive to investment.
‘World standard’ opportunity
Jaco Human, CEO of the Industrial Gas Users Association Southern Africa, says everything favours Africa now, and it is up to the continent to seize the opportunity to establish itself as a major oil producer.
He agrees with Kruger that the Orange Basin offers a “world standard” opportunity for South Africa. Gas from the basin could provide a lifeline for Sasol’s Secunda plant, he says.
He says it makes sense for South Africa to refine more of its own oil, but argues the country must first develop its domestic resources.
“Namibia is expecting its first oil production in 2030 and South Africa is already 15 years behind in comparison.”
Human says a Rompco-type agreement would make sense, but companies developing oil fields have options and will sell their production wherever it makes the most commercial sense.
He argues that South Africa must ensure that its policies encourage investment in infrastructure development, and warns that legal challenges from environmental groups pose a huge risk.
In his view, South African courts do not have the specialised technical expertise required to arrive at a fair ruling and specialised tribunals would be better placed to hear such cases.