The International Monetary Fund warns that the expected El Niño could impact Zimbabwe’s agriculture industry, “if it materializes”, potentially dragging the country’s 2027 economic growth down to around two-to-three percent, from the anticipated 4.2 percent.
“Looking ahead, growth is expected to moderate to 4.2 percent in 2027 under the baseline, with inflation remaining in single digits. However, if the projected El Niño materializes, growth could moderate further to the 2–3 percent range, with additional downside risks from a stronger-than-expected El Niño and escalation of the Middle East war,” said IMF in a statement following review of Zimbabwe’s Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP).
The warning by IMF come as the US Climate Prediction Center says the El Niño will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years while the US-Iran peace deal has crumbled, escalating threats to global economic stability.
The international lender said the country’s current account is expected to remain in surplus in 2026 supported by mining and agricultural exports and remittance flows contributing to a continued increase in gross international reserves.
In recent years, Zimbabwe’s economy has seen steady growth supported by a rebound in agriculture, strong mining activity, and favorable gold prices.
Traders, markets, and governments closely watch El Niño because it is a massive driver of global supply-chain stress, commodity price volatility, and inflation.
Meanwhile, the IMF said they reached a staff-level agreement with Zimbabwean authorities on policies to complete the first review under the 10-month SMP.
“Completion of the review marks an important step in consolidating recent stabilization gains and building a track record toward arrears clearance, debt restructuring, and re-engagement with the international community,” the institution said.