Determined to avoid a repeat of the July 2021 riots that claimed 350 lives and caused damage estimated at R50 billion, government says it is better prepared for the planned protests on Tuesday led by anti-immigrant groups like March and March, which has issued an ultimatum for illegal immigrants to leave the country by 30 June.
This has alarmed several key African allies and prompted voluntary repatriation efforts by Malawi, Ghana and Nigeria, with several other countries issuing travel advisories for those planning to visit SA.
All police leave has been cancelled for 30 June and the army is on call to protect critical infrastructure.
Private security companies are also on high alert. There are fears that supposedly peaceful protests could turn violent, as they have done in the past.
President Cyril Ramaphosa met with Zulu monarch King Misuzulu KaZwelithini at the former’s official residence in Pretoria over the weekend to discuss migration and the responsibility of the state to enforce immigration laws.
Ramaphosa urged the king to add his voice in calling for peaceful demonstrations to those protesting against illegal immigration.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and Zulu monarch King Misuzulu KaZwelithini pictured this weekend in Pretoria. Image: GCIS
Last week acting Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia said the police were ready for any eventuality and warned protesters that they would not be waiting for disruption to happen.
The South African Police Service (SAPS) and other law enforcement agencies were out in force over the weekend in Klerksdorp, North West, in an operation aimed at combatting crime and addressing anti-foreigner sentiment.
SAPS Lieutenant General Puleng Dimpane said over the weekend the police were not deploying against citizens, but to ensure that the protests are conducted lawfully and peacefully.
She urged protesters not to allow themselves to be provoked, and to operate within the confines of the law.
Deputy Minister of Police Polly Boshielo says there will be no tolerance for xenophobia, vigilantism or intimidation, or “for anyone who thinks they can decide who may or may not live in our communities”.
Home Affairs under pressure
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) is under unprecedented pressure to fix a clearly broken immigration system that is blamed for allowing a flood of undocumented migrants into the country.
Last week, Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber said the department is in the process of cancelling thousands of visas to SA, including some 2 000 study visas.
The DHA says it has repatriated nearly 9 500 foreign nationals from Durban in “an orderly, lawful and humane manner”.
A further 7 000 individuals are at the Durban Drive-In site awaiting processing, with another 657 repatriated from Pietermaritzburg.
At the same time, government is distancing itself from the anti-immigrant forces that have sprouted in the past year.
“We will not tolerate anyone using allegations related to any person’s nationality or immigration status to violate their inherent human dignity and our Constitution, or to inflict damage on our society. It simply cannot and will not stand,” said Schreiber.
Risk
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) warns there is heightened risk of localised violence on Tuesday, with moderate to high risks expected in certain urban areas, particularly in Gauteng, parts of the Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal.
Few expect the call by some anti-immigrant groups for a national shutdown on Tuesday to succeed. Areas most likely to be affected are those with known high-immigrant populations, particularly in townships and areas believed to employ a high number of foreigners.
In a note to clients, the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) says businesses in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are most at risk of disruption, but that any social unrest is likely to be concentrated to vulnerable areas rather than countrywide.
It says the most likely outcome is persistent, localised friction with sporadic violence and forced closures.
The prospect of rapid de-escalation is regarded as least likely because, in the run-up to local government elections in November, “the rewards of confronting mobilisation are smaller than the rewards of riding it”.
Likely impact?
Natasha Marrian, economist with the Bureau for Economic Research, told eNCA the 30 June protests could have a material short-term impact on economic activity, particularly in Gauteng.
“We are already seeing businesses in affected areas preparing contingency plans, including remote work arrangements and enhanced security,” she says.
A one-day event is unlikely to cause long-term damage, but the risks escalate should there be repeated instability or prolonged protests. This would also erode investor confidence and worsen an already fragile economic outlook for the country.
The informal sector, which employs millions, is especially vulnerable.
Foreign-owned businesses are especially vulnerable to targeted attacks.
The ISS urged the police to maintain a visible and professional presence to deter criminal elements from exploiting the situation.
Pushback
There is considerable pushback against the planned shutdown from several civil society, business and labour organisations.
Business Unity SA (Busa) and the National Employers Association of SA (Neasa) have urged all employers and employees to treat 30 June as a normal working day, and have called on employers to prioritise the safety of employees and customers, and immediately report any threats or criminal activity to the police.
Civil alliances such as Defend Democracy and the United Against Xenophobia Coalition – a loose affiliation of human rights groups, churches and community organisations – have come together to counter xenophobic rhetoric and violence and advocate for a humane approach to migration.
While recognising real and legitimate grievances over poverty, crime and unemployment, the South African Federation of Trade Unions says the country’s economic crisis was not caused by migrants, and has urged workers to report for duty on 30 June as normal.
“We urge workers to report for duty and not place their employment at risk. Government must communicate this clearly and act decisively against intimidation, unlawful shutdowns, attacks on workers, violence and threats to critical infrastructure.”